51 Insights

51 Insights

CEO Notes

Real-estate enters prediction markets

Marc Baumann's avatar
Sangam Bharti's avatar
Marc Baumann and Sangam Bharti
Jan 08, 2026
∙ Paid

The U.S. real estate derivatives market has long been illiquid and outdated. In 2006, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange tried launching housing futures based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index, but failed. The problem wasn’t demand, it was infrastructure: the index lagged by two months, making it unusable for real-time speculation.

That changed on January 5, 20…

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