Polymarket: The Truth Machine
How the world’s largest prediction market is revolutionizing "truth-finding," why it has grown 100x since January, why Biden might drop out, and the opportunities for brands.
Hey, it’s Marc.
Today we’re going to untangle one of the most exciting crypto consumer apps.
It’s a financially incentivized “truth-finding” tool that predicts the future and opens exciting opportunities for investors.
Why did it grow 100x in volume this year? Will Biden drop out? What’s in it for brands? We’ll find out.
Let’s dive in 🦈
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Truth Finding
Polymarket, now the world's largest prediction market, has experienced a 100x increase in volume this year and gained popularity among mainstream media.
Polymarket reached a record monthly trading volume of over $110M, bringing the year's total to over $360M with 30k monthly active users, driven by US Presidential election traffic.
New wallets visiting Polymarket jumped from 19K to 36K in June with a surge in monthly active traders by 53%.
It has secured $70M in funding across two rounds led by Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin.
What’s happening: On the day of the U.S. presidential debate, Polymarket saw over $8M in predictions, experiencing a flurry of activity. 2024 presidential election is the most hottest topic on the platform and it will continue until the election in November.
Increased speculation: The debate sparked massive shifts in public sentiment around the general election and Democratic nomination on Polymarket.
Biden's odds of winning the 2024 presidential election plummeted from 34% to 22%, while Trump's skyrocketed to 64%.
By the number:
Polymarket holds over 85% of the market share for election betting globally.
The US election monthly trading volume comprised 60% of total volume on Polymarket in June.
How it works: Polymarket allows users to bet on the future outcomes of a huge range of topics like politics, sports, current events and stocks. This allows it to captures real-time sentiment, engages users and provides an unbiased view of significant events.
Zooming in:
The mechanism is simple. The user can deposit USDC and take a position on yes or no. If the prediction is true, they win $1 or else get nothing.
Polymarket operates on Ethereum Layer 2 network Polygon. As a decentralized platform, Polymarket's data is seen as more transparent and less susceptible to bias than traditional polling/ betting methods.
It harness data from diverse user-base to provide real-time insights and outcomes. The largest age group of Polymarket website visitors are 25 - 34 year olds, mainly from United States, Canada and Norway.
Mainstream media recognition: The platform's insights have been cited by multiple publications (WSJ, Bloomberg, CoinDesk, etc.) and thought leaders, enhancing its credibility and influence in public discourse.
Why it matters: Polymarket’s ability to capture and reflect real-time sentiment on significant events, particularly political ones, positions it as a critical tool for understanding and forecasting public opinion.
The big picture: Polymarket signals a trend: the public's desire for alternative, crowd-sourced information. Unlike traditional prediction markets limited to institutions, Polymarket allows anyone to participate. It offers broader implications with global participation, reflecting a changing paradigm in information consumption.
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