Hey, it's Marc.
What's happening: Late Sunday, Senate Republicans put out what they call the final Clarity Act, the bill that decides who regulates crypto in the US.
The Senate votes Tuesday at 2:15pm ET on whether to start debating it. That needs 60 votes. Republicans have 53, so at least seven Democrats have to say yes. Polymarket puts the odds of the bill becoming law this year at 31%. In February it was 82%.
Why it matters: Most people will call this a deal. Democrats got ethics, banks got a brake, crypto got its bill. We see three IOUs. The ethics rules don't kick in for a year. The developer shield keeps you out of a licensing fight, not out of court. The bank brake dies after 18 months. So the bill doesn't end the three fights. It puts dates on them. And the one that moves real money, stablecoin rewards, is now one person's call.
Republicans needed Democratic votes and quiet banks. Here's what they paid:
